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What Everyone’s Getting Wrong About Miami’s Rising Inventory

By Realtors Cristina Formosa & Caroles Smith

Youve probably seen the headlines: More homes are hitting the market!” Sounds daunting, right? More homes must mean prices are about to tumble. But heres the truth: Miamis market isnt crashing, its just catching its breath after years of breakneck speed. Lets break down whats really happening.

Myth #1: Inventory is up — prices are tanking.”

The reality:
Yes, there are more options than last year. But context matters.

  • Single-family homes: Were sitting at about 6.6 months of supply. Thats the textbook definition of a balanced market” — neither buyers nor sellers hold all the cards.
  • Condos: Supply is higher (14+ months), so buyers have the upper hand. But keep this in mind: distress sales make up only about 1.6% of closings. This isnt 2008.

Prices have softened a touch (down a few percent year-over-year), but after a decade of Miami prices climbing well over 100%, thats just the market rebalancing.

Myth #2: New-home inventory means oversupply.”

The reality:
National news often lumps Miami in with broad new home” stats. But here, builders arent flooding the market. Theyre pacing projects carefully.

Even with Julys 33% jump in active listings, were still below 2019 levels. Translation: were finally moving away from ultra-low inventory, not drowning in it.

Myth #3: Buyers have vanished.”

The reality:
They havent disappeared — theyve just gotten choosier.

  • Mortgage rates are now around 6.5%, the lowest theyve been in nearly a year.
  • Homes are taking longer to sell (about 85 days for single-family, 107 for condos), but most are still closing at 93–94% of list price.

Buyers are using their leverage more, but theyre still showing up.

Myth #4: Condos = Miami weakness.”

The reality:
Condos do face unique challenges — stricter financing, higher HOA fees after Surfside-inspired reforms, and insurance hikes. But not all condos are created equal.

  • Older buildings are feeling the pinch.
  • Newer and luxury condos? Still attracting buyers, especially cash buyers at the top end.

Its less a blanket weakness and more a story of haves” and have-mores.”

Myth #5: Luxury will be the first to fall.”

The reality:
Not here. Ultra-luxury is holding strong. South Florida is pacing nearly 430 sales at $10M+ this year — with most paid in cash. That level of wealth is insulated from interest rate drama.

Myth #6: Insurance costs will collapse the market.”

The reality:
Insurance is a real challenge, no doubt. Its making ownership more expensive, especially for older condos and waterfront homes. But so far, buyers are adjusting pricing expectations — not fleeing the market altogether.

So, What Does This All Mean?

  • If youre selling a single-family home: Be patient, price smart, and expect more negotiation.
  • If youre selling a condo: Arm yourself with information — reserve reports, assessments, insurance. Buyers will pay for peace of mind.
  • If youre buying: This is your moment. More choices, fewer bidding wars, and rates dipping under 7%. The panic premium” of the last few years is gone.

 

Bottom Line

Miami isnt overbuilt” or crashing.” Its moving toward balance — and balance is healthy. More choices for buyers. More realistic expectations for sellers. And a market that feels a lot less frenzied than it did just a year ago.

 

WORK WITH US

Carole and Cristina believe that our homes are an important part of our lives, giving us shelter, security, and a means of self-expression. Separate from the constraints of necessity, many homes are a microcosm for the things we hold most dear — family, memories, relaxation and sense of belonging.

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